Econometrics
Bayesian Econometrics
This guide helps you get your bearings in Bayesian Econometrics before you start exploring the interactive timeline, framework graph, and concept maps.
Before You Dive In
- Bayesian Econometrics is part of econometrics: extracting credible causal or predictive signals from noisy economic data.
- Rough timeline: linear regression foundations -> identification revolution and quasi-experiments -> panel and structural methods -> ML-integrated econometrics.
- Start with identification logic before estimation technique; method follows design.
- In Noosaga, compare frameworks by assumptions about exogeneity, functional form, and treatment assignment.
Key Terms to Know
IdentificationConditions under which a parameter of interest is uniquely recoverable from data.
EndogeneityCorrelation between explanatory variables and error terms that biases estimates.
Instrumental variablesMethod using exogenous variation to estimate causal effects under endogeneity.
Difference-in-differencesDesign comparing changes across treated and control groups over time.
Robust standard errorsVariance estimates adjusted for heteroskedasticity or dependence patterns.
Common Confusions
Treating statistical significance as practical or policy significance.
Assuming advanced estimators fix weak identification.
Confusing prediction accuracy with causal validity.
Recommended Reading
Mostly Harmless Econometrics— Joshua D. Angrist & Jorn-Steffen Pischke
2009Econometric Analysis— William H. Greene
2018Mastering 'Metrics— Joshua D. Angrist & Jorn-Steffen Pischke
2014How to Use the Interactive View
1
Explore the timeline
Open the interactive view and scan the framework timeline. Which frameworks came first? Which ones overlap? Where are the big transitions?
2
Read the articles
Click into individual frameworks to read what each one claims, where it came from, and how it relates to its neighbors.
3
Check the concept map
See how the key ideas within a framework connect. This is useful for figuring out what to learn first and what depends on what.
4
Test yourself
Take the quiz for any framework you've read about. It's a quick way to find out whether you actually understood the core ideas or just skimmed them.